锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介波锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟絀锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷P锟叫堬拷锟杰碉拷影響★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介導锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絫锟酵癸拷锟斤拷锟絖锟斤拷锟绞低碉拷影響ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絀331锟斤拷锟絙锟斤拷锟斤拷锟組锟饺岋拷锟角筹拷锟給锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟統锟斤拷锟斤拷锟�331锟斤拷锟絙锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷同锟絩锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺筹拷品锟斤拷锟叫堬拷锟斤拷锟組锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰斤拷锟斤拷锟截燂拷锟斤拷锟絊也锟秸憋拷袎锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷F锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷停锟斤拷锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絀锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影锟�

锟斤拷锟斤拷1锟斤拷30锟秸ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟斤拷針岋拷锟斤拷前锟斤拷锟斤拷印锟絣通知锟斤拷要锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絀锟狡學锟絖锟斤拷锟酵癸拷锟酵產锟絩锟絞锟斤拷锟絚锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絩锟斤拷訂施锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絀锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰確锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟組锟饺★拷锟絪锟斤拷锟节★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介導锟铰碉拷锟斤拷锟絫锟酵癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絀锟斤拷锟絙“331”锟斤拷“630”锟斤拷锟絎锟絘锟斤拷锟斤拷影響★拷锟絴莞锟紺券锟斤拷锟叫堬拷锟斤拷指锟斤拷锟斤拷2锟铰份癸拷锟斤拷锟秸減锟劫ｏ拷锟斤拷锟�331锟斤拷锟絙锟斤拷锟絎锟統锟饺大，癸拷锟斤拷锟絀一锟斤拷锟饺業锟斤拷锟斤拷锟劫伙拷袎锟斤拷锟�

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟斤拷2019锟斤拷5锟铰發锟斤拷锟侥★拷2019锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絣電斤拷锟絆锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷a锟絅锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥癸拷锟斤拷l锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟紸計投锟絘锟絩锟絞锟斤拷锟节硷拷锟斤拷末之前全锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟缴诧拷锟絎锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷未锟斤拷锟缴诧拷锟絎锟侥ｏ拷每锟斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺诧拷锟絎電價锟絘锟絅锟斤拷锟斤拷0.01元/千锟竭時锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟酵讹拷a锟斤拷锟节硷拷锟饺猴拷蓚锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿达拷锟斤拷刹锟斤拷W锟侥ｏ拷取锟斤拷锟侥匡拷a锟絅锟結锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷2019锟斤拷祝锟斤拷A計锟揭囷拷锟斤拷5-10GW锟侥课达拷锟皆嬶拷锟斤拷锟�2019锟斤拷前锟斤拷锟絎锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节达拷锟斤拷r锟铰ｏ拷原锟斤拷M锟节斤拷锟斤拷一锟斤拷锟斤拷末(3锟斤拷31锟斤拷)之前锟斤拷锟絎锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟�2锟铰份癸拷锟斤拷锟秸減锟劫碉拷锟斤拷r锟铰ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟組锟饺岋拷锟角筹拷锟給锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟統锟斤拷锟斤拷锟�331锟斤拷锟絙锟斤拷锟斤拷331锟斤拷锟絙锟給锟斤拷锟斤拷桑锟饺ワ拷锟轿达拷锟接嬶拷锟斤拷锟斤拷W锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷s锟斤拷6锟斤拷30锟斤拷之前锟斤拷锟絎锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫時锟絘锟絅锟斤拷锟斤拷原锟絘锟絅锟斤拷锟斤拷0.02元/千锟竭時锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷IHS Markit锟紸锟統锟斤拷锟叫囷拷锟叫堬拷2020锟斤拷锟教拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟襟將碉拷锟斤拷2017锟斤拷50 GW锟侥歷史锟斤拷锟絙锟竭峰。锟絊锟斤拷锟叫堬拷锟斤拷o锟絘锟絅太锟斤拷馨l展锟斤拷同锟絩锟絚锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絣電凤拷式锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫囷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷處锟斤拷锟絕锟斤拷锟紸锟轿ｏ拷锟饺达拷锟斤拷锟絞锟斤拷锟斤拷一些锟斤拷锟絖锟斤拷锟皆★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絕锟斤拷锟組锟斤拷锟斤拷锟介對锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷b锟絘锟斤拷影響ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟节达拷锟斤拷前锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰發锟侥硷拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟竭憋拷去锟斤拷锟斤拷前锟斤拷锟絖锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絩锟绞備、锟斤拷锟絆锟絩锟絞锟斤拷锟姐，锟斤拷锟饺拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷b锟紺锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷負锟斤拷影響ｏ拷锟斤拷锟紽锟斤拷锟絤锟斤拷锟絃锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷1锟斤拷23锟秸ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟街發锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絇锟斤拷2020锟斤拷锟絃電★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷l锟斤拷目锟斤拷锟絆锟斤拷锟絇锟斤拷锟酵ㄖ�(锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷見锟斤拷)锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絖2020锟斤拷锟铰斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷l锟斤拷目锟絘锟絅锟紸锟姐總锟絶锟饺烇拷15锟絴元锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫戯拷锟斤拷5锟絴元锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絩(锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷式锟斤拷锟斤拷站锟酵癸拷锟教業锟街诧拷式锟斤拷锟斤拷目)10锟絴元锟斤拷锟节時锟絞锟斤拷锟斤拷锟较ｏ拷锟斤拷锟疥將锟紸锟斤拷锟絪40锟斤拷r锟絞锟給锟斤拷I锟斤拷锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟角帮拷跍蕚涔わ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷@锟斤拷锟饺ワ拷锟�15锟斤拷锟斤拷锟揭的準傦拷r锟絞锟斤拷锟紷锟斤拷锟接★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷同锟絩锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絘锟絅锟斤拷锟絩锟侥匡拷锟斤拷r锟疥畢锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷源锟街的時锟絞锟斤拷锟絚锟斤拷4锟斤拷30锟秸ｏ拷锟斤拷锟饺ワ拷锟斤拷锟角耙伙拷锟斤拷锟斤拷拢锟斤拷锟�2020锟斤拷o锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絀锟紸锟斤拷锟侥斤拷锟絆锟絩锟絞锟斤拷7锟斤拷锟铰ｏ拷锟斤拷锟饺ワ拷锟侥約5锟斤拷锟铰的斤拷锟絆锟絩锟絞锟斤拷锟紷锟斤拷锟絃锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷一位锟絀锟饺岋拷锟斤拷也锟絁锟介，锟紸計2020锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絩锟侥匡拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟绞曪拷锟絟锟斤拷锟斤拷去锟疥。該锟絀锟饺岋拷锟揭測锟姐，2020锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絘锟絅锟侥匡拷锟絪锟斤拷20-26GW锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫癸拷锟教業锟街诧拷式锟秸撅拷s锟斤拷15~19GW锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫癸拷锟斤拷t锟絪锟斤拷5-7GW锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟紿原锟酵筹拷锟絤锟铰碉拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷全锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷迎锟斤拷锟斤拷I锟斤拷锟絃锟斤拷锟节★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷通停锟絓锟斤拷锟絕锟襟部凤拷锟今眾居家憋拷锟経锟斤拷私锟斤拷車锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絣锟斤拷锟絚锟斤拷锟叫半徑锟斤拷锟轿拷s锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺筹拷品锟斤拷锟叫堬拷锟斤拷锟組锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟統锟斤拷锟斤拷锟酵达拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷小锟竭凤拷锟窖诧拷锟酵达拷锟节★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟解，锟斤拷锟节达拷锟酵戯拷锟解工锟教★拷锟斤拷锟絍锟斤拷I锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絓輸锟斤拷锟叫業锟斤拷锟节冿拷锟統锟皆復癸拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟教庯拷诒锟斤拷c锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絞锟斤拷锟斤拷探锟紿锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿等庯拷锟接的猴拷锟秸匡拷锟絓锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷A锟斤拷锟洁被锟斤拷锟狡ｏ拷锟斤拷煤锟斤拷锟斤拷同锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絉锟斤拷锟轿撅拷锟截★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷聯锟斤拷锟統锟姐，锟紺锟较侊拷锟斤拷锟斤拷1-2锟铰份ｏ拷锟斤拷锟饺筹拷品锟斤拷锟叫堬拷锟斤拷锟組锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟紷锟斤拷锟戒，锟紸計锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷15%-20%锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷影響ｏ拷锟斤拷锟饺地燂拷锟斤拷锟絊也锟秸憋拷袎锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷诮锟酵拷锟斤拷撸锟斤拷锟斤拷指锟斤拷锟轿ｏ拷锟狡凤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷\輸锟斤拷锟借，山锟絴锟截燂拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟轿產品锟斤拷婕わ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷拢锟斤拷锟斤拷S锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷停锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷聯锟斤拷锟統锟姐，锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟截燂拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷30%-50%锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絊锟斤拷30%锟絖锟斤拷負锟缴ｏ拷锟斤拷锟絜锟截燂拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絙锟斤拷锟窖斤拷停锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絔路循锟絟锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫诧拷锟街地燂拷锟斤拷锟斤拷全锟絊停锟斤拷锟紸锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絕锟斤拷锟铰態锟組展锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷山锟絴锟截燂拷锟斤拷锟絯锟絖锟斤拷負锟缴伙拷锟斤拷50%锟斤拷锟铰★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷隆锟斤拷锟結訊锟斤拷锟斤拷锟統計锟斤拷锟斤拷前山锟絴锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絊锟斤拷锟絧锟斤拷锟接癸拷負锟斤拷锟窖斤拷锟絕锟紹锟絤5锟杰碉拷锟斤拷锟絳锟斤拷山锟絴規模锟斤拷锟絊锟斤拷锟絧锟斤拷锟絖锟斤拷锟绞烇拷66.26%锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絞锟斤拷锟斤拷80%锟侥燂拷锟絊锟絕锟絤锟斤拷負锟缴和檢锟睫讹拷锟轿★拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絙锟矫★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟侥囷拷锟紿锟酵價锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷2020锟斤拷1锟斤拷21锟秸ｏ拷锟斤拷锟紿锟酵價锟組锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷通锟斤拷锟斤拷锟紷輪锟铰碉拷锟斤拷幕锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絖锟斤拷源锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷臄U散锟斤拷锟斤拷锟接★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷WTI锟酵诧拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷17锟秸碉拷58.54锟斤拷64.85锟斤拷元/桶一路锟铰碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷(2锟斤拷3锟斤拷)锟絣锟斤拷前锟斤拷WTI原锟酵堬拷51.50锟斤拷元/桶锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷原锟酵堬拷56.368锟斤拷元/桶锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟街別锟絖12.03%锟斤拷13.08%锟斤拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟叫ｏ拷锟斤拷锟斤拷h锟斤拷锟斤拷_始锟斤拷锟斤拷锟紿锟酵價锟侥碉拷锟斤拷迅锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷每锟届超锟絕1锟斤拷元/桶锟侥凤拷锟斤拷锟紹锟斤拷锟斤拷锟届。28锟秸ｏ拷锟斤拷锟紿锟酵價锟絇锟叫革拷锟角碉拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟铰侊拷锟斤拷锟斤拷蛢r位锟斤拷OPEC锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟組锟斤拷锟剿筹拷锟斤拷討論锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷示锟斤拷锟斤拷锟矫準傦拷锟饺★拷锟绞╋拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟饺★拷M一锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絧锟絘锟斤拷锟斤拷同锟絩锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絇注锟斤拷锟介對原锟酵價锟斤拷影響★拷

锟斤拷锟斤拷隆锟斤拷锟結訊锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷指锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷沙锟截硷拷OPEC锟窖斤拷锟斤拷B锟斤拷锟絊锟絩锟叫斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟絃锟絧锟絘锟斤拷锟睫和加达拷p锟絘锟斤拷锟饺讹拷锟組锟斤拷挺锟叫的匡拷锟斤拷锟皆ｏ拷锟酵價锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟斤拷锟紽锟斤拷锟斤拷式锟斤拷锟铰伙拷锟斤拷

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